As of Election Day, 46 million Americans have voted early. That number represents 30 to 40% of the expected vote nationally and is even higher in battleground states. These numbers represent a record level of early turnout, far beyond both the 2008 or 2012 elections.
Many of these early votes are coming in battleground states, and are showing Clinton to be in a strong position going into Election Day:
• In Florida, more than 6.4 million votes have been cast — that’s 75 percent of overall turnout in 2012, and nearly half of all registered Florida voters.
• In Nevada, likely two-thirds of total votes have been cast, giving Democrats a nearly 50,000-vote advantage.
• In Colorado, where the vote is conducted by mail, Democrats now lead on the number of ballots returned. In this same state four years ago, Democrats were down 32,000 votes to Republicans at this point.
Latino early vote turnout is also reaching record numbers in key states, which likely means strong enthusiasm for Clinton. More than 1 million Latino voters have voted already in Florida — nearly double the number from 2012. In North Carolina, as well as in Florida, the Latino early vote is up beyond 2012 early turnout.
Clinton has a much stronger organizing strategy than her Republican opponent, one that has been ramping up for these final weeks of GOTV. The Clinton campaign has been been running a grassroots campaign from the beginning, back in early 2015, and all that work has culminated in these last few days.
Clinton and the Democratic Party have five times as many campaign staff as the GOP. Most of those staff are field organizers — the real heroes of the campaign — who recruit volunteers, identify supporters, register voters, and turnout the vote during early vote and on Election Day.
Democrats also have at least 2.5 times as many field offices, creating a hyper-local presence in communities. As a result, the campaign recruited 1 million local volunteers to mobilize supporters during the last week of the campaign. During the early vote period, 45 million voters were reached via phone calls and door knocks. Fifteen million voters were reached on Saturday and Sunday alone.
The contrast with the Trump campaign is stark. Rather than encouraging people to vote, they brag about running voter suppression programs targeted at liberals, young women, and African Americans. They publicly support voter intimidation programs in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Higher voter turnout is not an increasing trend with each passing election. Voters turn out — and turn out early — when they feel there is more on the line, and when they are more enthusiastic for a certain candidate. Based on research and data from the 2008 and 2012 campaigns, we know that person-to-person conversations have a real impact on turnout.
And with that knowledge, we admire the Clinton campaign’s incredible grassroots organization and look forward to the final results.
Mark Beatty is a founding partner at 270 Strategies, and served as deputy battleground states director for the 2012 reelection campaign of Barack Obama.